110k New Citizens Contribute 5% Swing to FAP?

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An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:

Let's analyse the figures below:


http://www.todayonline.com/ge2015/ge...ow-polling-day

"SINGAPORE — On Polling Day next Friday (Sept 11), more than 2,400,000 eligible voters in Singapore are expected to go the polls at 833 polling centres across the island."

http://www.todayonline.com/more-spor...erns-dissipate

SINGAPORE — While much attention of late has been focused on the inflow of foreigners to the Republic’s shores, its diaspora has been steadily growing year on year: As of last year, 212,000 Singaporeans were living overseas, compared with 157,800 in 2004, increasing by more than a third over the past decade.


http://statestimesreview.com/2015/07...ded-in-ge2015/

According to a Parliamentarian reply by Minister Grace Fu in 2013, the Singapore PAP Government expects to grant about 15,000 to 25,000 Permanent Residents applicants citizenship each year. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has emphasised several times that new citizens are required to replace Singaporeans’ falling birth rate, which is also the lowest in the world at 0.8 (2014 estimate) according to the CIA World Factbook.
As Singapore’s birth rate in 1993 is only 1.75, it is unlikely the number of Singaporeans who have turned 21 could have increased the population by more than 110,000.

Thus the, assuming that only 2.2M SGs voted and there is an addition of 110k FAP-supporting New Citizens, and there is no swing against the FAP by native SGs, the swing against the Oppos would be 110k/2.2M = 5%.


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