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#1
06-12-2014, 08:30 PM
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Today letter: Property won't fall much because we will attract more immigrants!
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
http://www.todayonline.com/voices/st...rices-unlikely From Wong Toon Tuan . Published: 4:02 AM, December 6, 2014 I refer to the report “Private home prices to fall 10 to 15%: OCBC” (Dec 5). The analysts forecast that private residential property prices will dip 10 to 15 per cent over next year and 2016, citing the large oversupply of homes and the anticipated interest rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve. A combined public and private supply of about 50,300 and 71,500 homes will be added to those that will be physically completed next year and in 2016, respectively. But despite this and the home loan curbs, a steep price fall is unlikely because of an equally large backlog of demand for private and public housing, as well as the current low interest rates and unemployment. Between 1995 and 2010, the resident population grew by 758,200, but the increase in completed private homes was 128,896. Assuming an average of 3.5 persons per household, 758,200 equates to 216,629 households and a housing deficit of 87,733 as of December 2010. Between 2011 and this year, close to 20,000 new citizens were added annually to the population (offset by a dip of 13,000 permanent residents in total). During this period, up to 19,000 additional homes were needed for them. Another category of potential buyers is newly-weds. Based on 25,000 marriages annually, roughly 100,000 units have been required in the same period. But the Housing and Development Board started to build 25,000 flats in 2011, followed by 27,000 in 2012. Completion takes roughly three years, so these flats will be physically added to supply in 2014/5 and 2015/6. The figures do not show an oversupply for next year and 2016. The other fear is interest rate hikes. But mortgage rates have to rise significantly to affect affordability. When interest rates rose to around 3.5 per cent in 2006 and 2007, housing demand and prices continued to increase. I would not bet on a slowdown because of interest rates and oversupply. Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com. 
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