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  #481  
Old 03-12-2008, 08:31 AM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Quote:
Originally Posted by binbin81 View Post

if you can get 4.5.
it is considered good enough.
me got 4.5 last night at people's park ...

i hope rmb will soften in the coming wks ...
so i can change some for CNY ...
  #482  
Old 03-12-2008, 09:48 AM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

The RMB would surely weaken in time to come. The economy is deteriorating at a alarming rate so the govt would definitely keep the RMB weak.
Bloomberg.com: Exclusive
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  #483  
Old 03-12-2008, 01:03 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Live rates at 2008.12.03 04:59:44 UTC
1.00 SGD = 4.50990 CNY
Singapore Dollars China Yuan Renminbi
1 SGD = 4.50990 CNY 1 CNY = 0.221735 SGD
  #484  
Old 03-12-2008, 02:50 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Quote:
Originally Posted by adidas88 View Post
me got 4.5 last night at people's park ...

i hope rmb will soften in the coming wks ...
so i can change some for CNY ...
Not a bad deal.
Nevertheless, Hope to see better one coming up soon
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  #485  
Old 03-12-2008, 06:05 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Looks like the rate will be getting better in another few days time....
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  #486  
Old 03-12-2008, 08:12 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

How do you know this? From GTO or Chairman HU?

LOL

Quote:
Originally Posted by XR29 View Post
Looks like the rate will be getting better in another few days time....
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  #487  
Old 03-12-2008, 09:58 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Just got back from shanghai.
When I left last week, the exchange rate at the usual mama that I go to was 4.35.

Hope that the RMB will continue to go up. As I will be traveling again after chinese new year.
  #488  
Old 04-12-2008, 08:05 AM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmanks View Post
How do you know this? From GTO or Chairman HU?

LOL
from the news lah...hopefully gone up and we can have more fun with $$$
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  #489  
Old 04-12-2008, 06:02 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

You mean like the news report below?

Thought he got inside info from GTO. hahaha





Quote:
Originally Posted by binbin81 View Post
from the news lah...hopefully gone up and we can have more fun with $$$


热议:人币到了贬值的时候了?
楼主 2008-12-04 10:07 作者:投资 发消息给他
中国外汇交易中心公布的美元兑人民币中间价为6.8505元,以此计算,人民币比前一交易日大跌了156点 。而在国内现汇市场,人民币即期市场在接近尾盘时报出1美元兑人民币6.8848元,因触及千分之五的下限 而宣布跌停。与此同时,在海外的NDF市场,1年期美元兑人民币的价格也站到7.2以上的高位,与上周末的 收盘价拉开了2300点的差距。
对此,一些接受采访的交易员表示,这样的情况从没见过。包括交易员和部分学者在内的受访者普遍认为,这或许 是人民币即将贬值的信号。


人民币中间价的上一高点在9月23日,为6.8009元。自汇改以来,人民币对美元已累计升值19.25% 。


“前所未见”的下跌


“在下午5点28分左右报价到了6.8848,人民币跌停了。”某一中资银行的即期交易员昨日对本报记者说 ,“从业再久的交易员,也没有见过人民币封跌停这样的状况。报价窗口变成了灰色,就是没有人报价了。上一次 ,也就是‘十一’前的那次触及跌停板,也是到了下限后价格又再上去,还是有人继续报价的。”


该交易员表示,市场的变化来得很快,在整个交易日里几乎全部都是美元买盘,人民币即将贬值这一信号表现得十 分强烈,大家都急着把手里的钱换成美元。交易员们也认为,人民币的汇率变动方向可能面临改变。以当天的市场 表现来看,预计人民币近日还会有大幅下跌,这一周的市场将不复平静。


昨日,境内即期市场美元兑人民币开于6.8484元,盘中最高价6.8848元也是当日的收盘价,最低为6 .8482元。人民币比前一交易日的收盘价6.8349下跌了0.72%。


1年期美元兑人民币NDF价格昨天报7.2950元,比上周末的收盘价高出多达2300点。与当日的中间价 相比,相当于海外市场认为人民币一年后将贬值6.1%。而人民币今年以来的升值幅度为7.41%,海外市场 对昨日人民币贬值的反应,无疑比国内市场剧烈得多。


中信银行的外汇分析师杨胜琨之前曾指出,现在NDF市场已完全受国内市场引导了。昨日的NDF价格表现正印 证了这一点,在中间价公布之后,NDF市场的价格曲线即出现了跳涨。


不过华宝信托的宏观分析师聂文认为,NDF价格的大变化虽有国内的影响,但对冲基金在去杠杆化过程中缺乏交 易对手,仍是最主要的原因。


政策改变还是短期调整?


在11月的第二周,央行行长周小川就曾透露不排除人民币贬值的可能,此番中间价156个点的下跌,被很多人 视为人民币或将贬值的信号。


“其实看到上周五的中间价跌了57点,我就感觉有些奇怪,不过当时刚大幅降息,我们猜想可能是受此影响。今 天的表现则几乎可以肯定,人民币或许要改变运行方向,开始贬值了。”上述中资行交易员说。


招商银行的外汇分析师刘东亮也表示,昨天央行没有干预市场,态度可以说已经十分明确,人民币会不会出现大幅 贬值还不能肯定,但昨天应该是政策出现转折的一天。


杨胜琨说,突然被拉高的美元价格可能是对市场的试探,而昨天的市场反应显然不会让央行失望。对于人民币汇率 的走向是否要改变,杨胜琨说接下来两天的中间价表现十分重要。如果连续几天形成趋势的话,那么人民币贬值就 可以肯定了。


不过市场也不尽然都是统一的声音。聂文就认为,昨日的表现应该不太会是人民币贬值的前兆。因为虽然目前外贸 部门希望压低人民币汇率,但如果人民币真的贬值,可能容易引起贸易保护主义的争端,反而不利于中国出口。昨 天的情况有可能是在人民币汇率趋稳的情况下,因年初到中国的套利资金流出所致。


另外,交通银行的分析师鄂永健也把人民币昨日的下跌归为市场波动,他认为出于经济基本面的考虑,人民币长期 的升值趋势依然存在。


某国有银行上海分行国际业务部人士估计,人民币即使出现贬值,贬值空间也不会太大,否则可能导 致资金外逃。

该不该贬值?


刘东亮认为,人民币中间价的大幅低开可以看作是汇率政策或将出现变化的重要信号,让人民币贬值与上周的大幅 降息一样,可以说是央行为了提振经济而打出的组合拳之一。


已公布的中央经济工作会议大纲中,提出了稳定出口这一条。兴业银行资金营运中心首席经济学家鲁政委表示,以 我国目前的经济状况看,确实很有人民币贬值的需要。听闻昨日的市场表现,他表示非常乐于见到人民币贬值的局 面,并认为应该更快地贬值。


鲁政委说,理想的贬值幅度在10%左右,加上出口退税税率调整等方面的措施,出口企业可以获得的实惠无疑是 丰厚的。


他还指出,中国现在面临通缩风险,从这个角度来说人民币并不适合继续升值。同时,“其他新兴市场国家的货币 都贬值了,中国的经济也出了问题,人民币就没有必要再撑着不贬值。”鲁政委说。


而杨胜琨对于人民币贬值的作用则不那么乐观。他认为人民币贬值对出口部门降低成本有一定的好处,但很难从根 本上扭转出口下滑的局面。因为全球经济衰退已成定局,外需面临萎缩是无可争议的事实。


他同时指出,人民币贬值还可能导致资本净流入的下降,而一部分沉淀在民间的外资资本可能会因此而撤离,这可 能导致一些中小企业的资金链断裂。


贬值的好时机?


杨胜琨在采访中提出,人民币应该更早点开始贬值,毕竟出口部门的问题不是最近才显现的。鲁政委则认为,目前 正是人民币贬值的最佳时机。


鲁政委说,从他国的实例看,实现汇率的完全自由浮动应当具备两个条件:一是国际物价稳定,二是国内资本流速 处于较低水平。而现在对中国来说,这两个条件完全具备。我们应该把握这个时机。如果错过这一调整机会,想要 开放人民币汇率,可能就要再等10年,因为大范围金融危机的出现差不多是10年一次。


他还说,资本外逃的担忧现在已经没有必要,资本回流救火的压力已经差不多释放,那些纯粹想在人民币升值上套 利的资本,也该在人民币稳定这么长一段时间后放弃了原先的打算。即使是还有资本外逃的风险,鲁政委也坚信, 主动快速地贬值,比被动贬值能更有效应对。


但企业客户会不会都选择把资金换成美元,从而导致国内银行系统的流动性吃紧?鲁政委说,这需要央行加强管制 ,比如适当地限制大额换汇量,而这样的控制应该是很容易做到的。


“在可控的情况下尽快让人民币贬值到位,央行应该先出好换汇的规定,再放手大干。”鲁政委说。
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Last edited by coolmanks; 04-12-2008 at 06:14 PM.
  #490  
Old 04-12-2008, 07:44 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Of cse from the news lah....

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmanks View Post
How do you know this? From GTO or Chairman HU?

LOL
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  #491  
Old 04-12-2008, 08:16 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

This mean, at least 50% chance of it happening, then. LOL

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Of cse from the news lah....
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  #492  
Old 06-12-2008, 10:15 AM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolmanks View Post
This mean, at least 50% chance of it happening, then. LOL
I am still waiting for it to happen...when ah
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  #493  
Old 07-12-2008, 12:44 AM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

drop drop drop!
  #494  
Old 07-12-2008, 04:55 PM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

quoted on yahoo is 4.5221

wonder how much they give at the money changers?
  #495  
Old 08-12-2008, 12:59 AM
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Re: Chinese RMB rates..

Bros,

Just checked at Peoples Park Complex yday afternoon and the rate is 4.51. Lets hope it will go higher when CNY is coming near. Cheers...
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