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Originally Posted by ProSmashers
A query here.
If your other fl partner has just tested negative for hiv and you proceed to have unprotected sex with her afterwards.
What are the chances of getting infected with hiv if she has carried out unprotected sex with another partner during the 1 month period (incubation)?
Assuming that other partner is hiv positive.
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There is no way to quantify the odds because so many factors come into play.
However it boils down to two scenarios :
1. She has NOT caught HIV from another partner. If that is the case then the probability of you catching HIV is zero.
2. She HAS caught HIV from her other infected partner. If that is the case then there is definitely a chance that you have caught it from her.
However to quantify the probability is difficult. There are various factors that increase the risk. Read this excellent article regarding putting a number to the probability.
http://www.catie.ca/en/pif/summer-20...k-exposure-hiv
This para is probably the most relevant based upon the way you phrased your question :
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Vaginal sex
A meta-analysis of 10 studies exploring the risk of transmission through vaginal sex was published in 2009.4 It estimated the risk of HIV transmission through receptive vaginal sex (receiving the penis in the vagina) to be 0.08% (equivalent to 1 transmission per 1,250 exposures).
A meta-analysis of three studies exploring the risk from insertive vaginal sex (inserting the penis into the vagina) was estimated to be 0.04% (equivalent to 1 transmission per 2,500 exposures).4
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As you can see the chances aren't exactly high but then again they are not zero.
However the article also mentions that during the acute phase of HIV infection ie the first few weeks after exposure the risk can increase many fold :
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We also know that for every 10-fold increase in viral load, the risk of HIV transmission increases by 2 to 3 times.9,10 Research suggests the extremely high viral load during acute HIV infection (the first few weeks after becoming infected with HIV) can increase the risk of HIV transmission by up to 26-fold.11,12 Therefore, unprotected sex with an HIV-positive person who has acute HIV infection could carry a transmission risk of up to 2% (the equivalent of 1 transmission per 50 exposures) for receptive vaginal sex and over 20% (equivalent to 1 transmission per 5 exposures) for receptive anal sex.
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The bottom line is that no matter what the odds you need to get yourself tested in order to know. The result is always very simple... you are either infected or you are not. There are no in betweens.