Sammyboy RSS Feed
01-08-2015, 10:50 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
After the results of last GE were announced, Goh Chok Tong (subsequently followed by Ng Eng Hen) seemed to blame Tin Pei Ling for the embarrassing performance of Marine Parade GRC. The formidable PAP scored a disappointing 56.6% there against a team of virtually unknown and untested candidates from the NSP.
Based on the comments of Goh Chok Tong and Ng Eng Hen, we could only assume that the votes secured by the PAP Team from its Macpherson ward (traditionally a PAP stronghold) in the last GE were not encouraging. If such assumption holds, it is therefore somewhat illogical to see the PM carving out Macpherson to be a SMC in his latest review of the nation’s electoral boundaries.
While only the PM himself knows best why he has to expose Macpherson to what seemed to be ‘unnecessary’ risks, I venture to share my following thoughts :
GE 2011 : The battle in Joo Chiat
As the electoral boundaries review announced a few days ago, Joo Chiat SMC has now been absorbed into the Marine Parade GRC, thus saving the Joo Chiat incumbent PAP MP the need to face his dangerous opponent from the WP again in this coming GE.
Yee Jenn Jong, the man from WP, nearly won over the Joo Chiat SMC in the last GE. He lost to the PAP candidate by a razor-thin margin of 388 votes; i.e. had the first-time candidate been able to win an additional 195 votes from his PAP opponent, he would have captured Joo Chiat! What was also worrying to the PAP was the high number of more than 3,000 spoilt votes in that constituency.
GE 2015 : high risk of PAP losing Joo Chiat
The risk of PAP losing Joo Chiat, if it remained as an SMC, was therefore extremely high, especially in view of Yee’s performance in parliament as a NCMP and the punishing efforts he put in at the constituency ground over the years in preparation for this coming GE.
Gerrymandering is a common tactic the PAP used to win an election against its opponents. A constituency that carried a high risk of being won by the opponents is quickly absorbed into a GRC, anchored by one or two high profile ministers. The electoral boundary manipulation works most of the time!
Problems of absorbing Joo Chiat into a GRC
But in the case of Joo Chiat SMC, the PAP (or Prime Minister) was in a tricky situation. On the 2011 electoral map, Joo Chiat SMC sat in between Marine Parade GRC and East Coast GRC – the PAP teams of both GRCs were badly humiliated by the opposition parties, more so for the East Coast GRC which will be facing a real threat from WP in this coming election!
While it might be easy for PAP East Coast to convince the PM that Marine Parade GRC should be the one to absorb Joo Chiat constituency, the PAP Chief had to bear in mind that his Marine Parade Team was also badly bruised in the last GE against an unknown team, and how many anti-PAP votes could the GRC absorb without falling into the hand of a strong opposition team? With WP’s destroyers and SingFirst’s battleships being frequently sighted in that area, today’s Marine Parade GRC is somewhat similar to the current situation of South China Sea!
Forcing Marine Parade GRC to carry two hot potatoes (Joo Chiat and Macpherson) brought forward from last GE could over burden the defence line. If luck is not on the PAP side, the Prime Minister may end up losing all of them : Marine Parade, Joo Chiat and Macpherson!
Macpherson as a SMC
Carving out Macpherson and making it a SMC was probably no longer an option to the PM, in view of the potential risks and very huge costs of over-loading his Marine Parade aircraft carrier group. In other words, the risk and cost of losing Macpherson SMC (and possibly Tin Pei Ling) is much more bearable than losing Marine Parade, Joo Chiat and Macpherson.
The Prime Minister may have hoped that given the elderly population profile of Macpherson, the ‘magic’ of his Pioneer Generation Package and death of his father could save the previously PAP-stronghold constituency from falling into the hand of an opposition party.
Perhaps the PM forgot that many elderly residents in Macpherson have children who are probably in age group of 40 to 50 years old – made jobless by government policies, have no income, unable to service debts, often cursing the PAP each time they visit their aging parents in Macpherson!
A joke on why Macpherson was carved out
Incidentally, there was a joke that Macpherson was carved out as a SMC because most PAP’s GRC team members (including AMK GRC) refused to take in Tin Pei Ling, given her weak performances and the constant public’s mockery on her. Well … … may be the PAP’s Aljunied Team doesn’t mind taking her in – but then the PM minds!
For some unknown reasons, the PM seemed to like Tin Pei Ling very much.
Thus, the PM’s colleagues told him, “You insist she must be in parliament? Fine, then put her in a SMC or your AMK GRC!”
Will Tin Pei Ling be placed to defend Macpherson?
Based on Tin Pei Ling’s comments to journalists regarding the carving up of Macpherson, I doubt she know whether she would continue to remain in the SMC.
The PM may transfer a “long-period” MP from a GRC to Macpherson SMC. As we know, many of the PAP MPs in our GRCs have never fought an election battle alone; they just rode on ministers’ coat tails into parliament.
If the PM feels that it is about time to test one such “long-period” and “back-door” MPs by putting him or her in Macpherson, then it is likely that he will subsequently announce Tin Pei Ling need to stay at home to focus on caring her new born baby! (If the PM re-post her to another safe GRC, many would question what in her that the PM could not let go!).
Of course, it is still possible that the PM rated Tin Pei Ling highly and gives her the important role of defending Macpherson SMC. If she wins, she will bring plenty of prides to the PM. If she loses … … let’s pity the Macpherson residents and their new MP – we can imagine how the PM would be going about fixing them!
Celia Lim
* Contributed by TRE reader
http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/01...ing-joo-chiat/ (http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/01/exposing-macpherson-in-return-for-retaining-joo-chiat/)
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.singsupplies.com/showthread.php?211701-Prickly-issue-of-Tin-Pei-Ling-s-participation-perplexes-LHL&goto=newpost).
After the results of last GE were announced, Goh Chok Tong (subsequently followed by Ng Eng Hen) seemed to blame Tin Pei Ling for the embarrassing performance of Marine Parade GRC. The formidable PAP scored a disappointing 56.6% there against a team of virtually unknown and untested candidates from the NSP.
Based on the comments of Goh Chok Tong and Ng Eng Hen, we could only assume that the votes secured by the PAP Team from its Macpherson ward (traditionally a PAP stronghold) in the last GE were not encouraging. If such assumption holds, it is therefore somewhat illogical to see the PM carving out Macpherson to be a SMC in his latest review of the nation’s electoral boundaries.
While only the PM himself knows best why he has to expose Macpherson to what seemed to be ‘unnecessary’ risks, I venture to share my following thoughts :
GE 2011 : The battle in Joo Chiat
As the electoral boundaries review announced a few days ago, Joo Chiat SMC has now been absorbed into the Marine Parade GRC, thus saving the Joo Chiat incumbent PAP MP the need to face his dangerous opponent from the WP again in this coming GE.
Yee Jenn Jong, the man from WP, nearly won over the Joo Chiat SMC in the last GE. He lost to the PAP candidate by a razor-thin margin of 388 votes; i.e. had the first-time candidate been able to win an additional 195 votes from his PAP opponent, he would have captured Joo Chiat! What was also worrying to the PAP was the high number of more than 3,000 spoilt votes in that constituency.
GE 2015 : high risk of PAP losing Joo Chiat
The risk of PAP losing Joo Chiat, if it remained as an SMC, was therefore extremely high, especially in view of Yee’s performance in parliament as a NCMP and the punishing efforts he put in at the constituency ground over the years in preparation for this coming GE.
Gerrymandering is a common tactic the PAP used to win an election against its opponents. A constituency that carried a high risk of being won by the opponents is quickly absorbed into a GRC, anchored by one or two high profile ministers. The electoral boundary manipulation works most of the time!
Problems of absorbing Joo Chiat into a GRC
But in the case of Joo Chiat SMC, the PAP (or Prime Minister) was in a tricky situation. On the 2011 electoral map, Joo Chiat SMC sat in between Marine Parade GRC and East Coast GRC – the PAP teams of both GRCs were badly humiliated by the opposition parties, more so for the East Coast GRC which will be facing a real threat from WP in this coming election!
While it might be easy for PAP East Coast to convince the PM that Marine Parade GRC should be the one to absorb Joo Chiat constituency, the PAP Chief had to bear in mind that his Marine Parade Team was also badly bruised in the last GE against an unknown team, and how many anti-PAP votes could the GRC absorb without falling into the hand of a strong opposition team? With WP’s destroyers and SingFirst’s battleships being frequently sighted in that area, today’s Marine Parade GRC is somewhat similar to the current situation of South China Sea!
Forcing Marine Parade GRC to carry two hot potatoes (Joo Chiat and Macpherson) brought forward from last GE could over burden the defence line. If luck is not on the PAP side, the Prime Minister may end up losing all of them : Marine Parade, Joo Chiat and Macpherson!
Macpherson as a SMC
Carving out Macpherson and making it a SMC was probably no longer an option to the PM, in view of the potential risks and very huge costs of over-loading his Marine Parade aircraft carrier group. In other words, the risk and cost of losing Macpherson SMC (and possibly Tin Pei Ling) is much more bearable than losing Marine Parade, Joo Chiat and Macpherson.
The Prime Minister may have hoped that given the elderly population profile of Macpherson, the ‘magic’ of his Pioneer Generation Package and death of his father could save the previously PAP-stronghold constituency from falling into the hand of an opposition party.
Perhaps the PM forgot that many elderly residents in Macpherson have children who are probably in age group of 40 to 50 years old – made jobless by government policies, have no income, unable to service debts, often cursing the PAP each time they visit their aging parents in Macpherson!
A joke on why Macpherson was carved out
Incidentally, there was a joke that Macpherson was carved out as a SMC because most PAP’s GRC team members (including AMK GRC) refused to take in Tin Pei Ling, given her weak performances and the constant public’s mockery on her. Well … … may be the PAP’s Aljunied Team doesn’t mind taking her in – but then the PM minds!
For some unknown reasons, the PM seemed to like Tin Pei Ling very much.
Thus, the PM’s colleagues told him, “You insist she must be in parliament? Fine, then put her in a SMC or your AMK GRC!”
Will Tin Pei Ling be placed to defend Macpherson?
Based on Tin Pei Ling’s comments to journalists regarding the carving up of Macpherson, I doubt she know whether she would continue to remain in the SMC.
The PM may transfer a “long-period” MP from a GRC to Macpherson SMC. As we know, many of the PAP MPs in our GRCs have never fought an election battle alone; they just rode on ministers’ coat tails into parliament.
If the PM feels that it is about time to test one such “long-period” and “back-door” MPs by putting him or her in Macpherson, then it is likely that he will subsequently announce Tin Pei Ling need to stay at home to focus on caring her new born baby! (If the PM re-post her to another safe GRC, many would question what in her that the PM could not let go!).
Of course, it is still possible that the PM rated Tin Pei Ling highly and gives her the important role of defending Macpherson SMC. If she wins, she will bring plenty of prides to the PM. If she loses … … let’s pity the Macpherson residents and their new MP – we can imagine how the PM would be going about fixing them!
Celia Lim
* Contributed by TRE reader
http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/01...ing-joo-chiat/ (http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/08/01/exposing-macpherson-in-return-for-retaining-joo-chiat/)
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.singsupplies.com/showthread.php?211701-Prickly-issue-of-Tin-Pei-Ling-s-participation-perplexes-LHL&goto=newpost).