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20-12-2014, 03:40 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:

Source: TR EMERITUS (http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/12/19/%E6%8D%A2%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%EF%BC%9F%E4%BD%A0%E5%8 7%86%E5%A4%87%E5%A5%BD%E4%BA%86%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F/)

Li Yeming: Is S’pore ready to change govt?
December 19th, 2014 | Author: Online Press

http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/li-yeming2-209x300.jpg?be9bf8
Former PRC Li Yeming

Editor’s note: TRE has published Mr Li’s article in full without censorship.

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2014-12-17,刊于《联合早报》(刊出时,部分内容被删节)

日前,李显龙总理在人民行动党干部大会上称,来届大选将是一场极其严峻的决战,大选决定的不只 是反对党拿下 多少国会议席,而是攸关谁将组织政府。因此他告诫全党不能轻敌,呼呼党员要努力为行动党发声, 深入基层,了 解民心,争取选民的支持。

这番话,不但被认为是大选即将来临的信号,更像是吹响了战斗的号角。不过对于总理把来届大选形 容为“决战” ,称其攸关谁来执政,很多网民却不以为然,认为总理夸大了工人党的实力,有的干脆以“危言耸听 ”来形容。

《联合早报》社论则认为,总理的这番话不是危言耸听。该文以其国际视野,列举了不少国家发生突变,很多老牌 执政党意外败 选的事实,证明危机是真实存在的。不过,这篇社论的题目是《国人须有忧患意识》。什么叫忧患意 识?简单说, 就是居安思危。可是在我看来,居安思危和危言耸听,除了在褒贬上明显不同,两者对现状的基本判 断却是一致的 ,那就是认为还算安全,没有太大问题。

行动党到底领先多少?

上届大选,行动党虽然丢掉一个集选区,得票率也明显下滑,但还是占60%之多。这个成绩在很多 国家可算是大 胜了。再看赢得的议席,行动党有81席。后来榜鹅东补选丢掉一席,剩下80席,可是与工人党的 区区七席相比 ,还是占有绝对优势。这也是多数舆论认为,反对党要想在下届大选扳倒行动党,几乎没有可能的原 因。

既然如此,那李总理的决战一说,岂不真成了危言耸听?

可我不这么认为。稍微分析一下上届大选的结果,其他多个反对党表现并没那么亮丽,有的得票率甚 至出现下滑。 只有工人党,除在堡垒选区后港大获全胜,在阿裕尼集选区赢的漂亮,在其他参选的所有选区,工人 党的得票率也 均超过41%;其中,如切单选区仅以微差落败。若是单以工人党参选的选区来比较,此长彼消,行 动党的得票率 就不是60%了,其对工人党的领先幅度会大幅缩水。

尤其在后来具有指标意义的榜鹅东补选,工人党派出的是在上届大选中落败,得票率在所有工人党候 选人中排名垫 底的李丽莲。结果,李丽莲在补选中出人意料地以得票率超出对手近11个百分点的傲人战绩胜出。

有舆论认为,李丽莲以上届大选得票最低的工人党候选人身份,在短短不到两年,就以大比分逆转获 胜,靠的不是 她个人的魅力或实力,而是工人党连战连胜的气势。如此说来,如果再选,工人党派出的候选人可能 全数当选也不 一定。

工人党上届共参选四个集选区、四个单选区,候选人共23位。如今,工人党不仅掌握更多资源,而 且被越来越多 人看好,这有利于吸引更多优秀人才加入。在来届大选中,工人党推出的候选人肯定不止23位。假 如工人党能推 出超过43名候选人,并且真的全部拿下,那就真的可以组织政府了。

不要忘了,新加坡实行的是选区制,工人党不需要在全国拿下超过50%的总票数,只需确保参选议 席过半,就有 赢得大选,把行动党拉下马的可能性。如果你担心工人党的新人没有经验,那新加坡的集选区制度, 此时显然有助 于工人党化解这一问题。

我想,这也是在榜鹅东补选获胜后,工人党支持者情绪高涨,喊出刘程强将是下届总理的原因。但刘 程强本人在一 次受访时明确表示,自己没有当总理的野心。他还认为,工人党目前仍处在问政阶段,还没有准备好 当替代政府。 工人党主席林瑞莲也表示,榜鹅东补选工人党之所以赢那么多,补选效应或是原因之一。

补选效应会持续吗?

什么是补选效应呢?我的理解是,由于补选不影响大局,不会导致换政府,因此选民在投票时毫无顾 忌,会将任何 对现状的不满,转化为对反对党的支持。尤其在2011年大选后,选民普遍认同工人党提出的第一 世界国会的理 念,并将行动党在大选后调整政策和执政理念所带来的好处,都归功于反对党的有效制衡。

对此,总理显然是了解的。所以他在行动党大会上强调,(未来)每个议席的选战都是大选,不是补 选。他还说, 这是有关我们能否继续拥有“第一世界政府”,而不是“第一世界国会”的一场大选。他说:当有人 提起“第一世 界国会”时,我们不明白这个说法的具体含义,但是当我们提到“第一世界国家”时,这样的国家就 在我们眼前。

坦白讲,我认为总理的这些话,很难改变新加坡人对于第一世界国会的向往。在民主已成为普世价值 ,监督与制衡 被认为是天经地义的今天,我相信多数选民会觉得,第一世界国会与第一世界政府或第一世界国家并 不矛盾;相反 ,只有实现第一世界国会,其他两项才更有保障。

我相信很多新加坡人也明白第一世界国会的具体含义,基本上就是工人党提出的超过三分之一国会议 席,这样有利 于反对党进行有效监督。而从目前的席次来看,工人党连十分之一都没达到,所以选民会认为,反对 党依然过于弱 小,无论怎么支持,都不会有换政府之虞。所以他们仍可以毫无顾忌的投票给反对党。

这就类似于补选效应了。如果这一效应持续到来届大选,无论行动党交出怎样的成绩单,可能都无法 换来选民的肯 定。意外换政府的可能性也就大大增加了。虽然工人党曾经表示没有准备好做替代政府,那又怎样? 就算现在再去 问,工人党,你到底准备好了没有?我想工人党也不会回答你。难道声称自己准备好了,会更有助于 他们赢得选票 吗?我看恰恰相反。

我倒觉得,应该问一问的是选民自己,我们是否已经准备好让工人党执政?如果真的准备好了,那换 政府就换政府 吧。民主社会总会有那么一天。怕就怕选民还在认为,最好的投票策略是投给反对党,以便让行动党 做的更多、更 好。假如在这样的投票模式下,真的把政府给换掉了,而选民却还没有准备好,那恐怕就是在开民主 的玩笑,或是 被民主开了一次不大不小的玩笑。

作者:李叶明

2014-12-17

www.sgwritings.com/45 (http://www.sgwritings.com/45)

End Of Article

Google Translation:

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2014-12-17, published in the "Lianhe Zaobao" (when published, some of the content is truncated)

Recently, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the People's Action Party cadres conference that the next general election will be a very tough battle, not just the number of congressional seats in elections the opposition won the decision, but who will organize the government stake. So he warned the party can not underestimate the enemy, whistling party members should strive to DAP vocal grassroots level, to understand the people, to win the support of voters.

Words, not only is considered a signal of the coming general election, more like a battle horn sounded. However, the general election for prime minister described as a "decisive battle", who called the death ruling, many users did not agree that the Prime Minister exaggerated the strength of the Workers' Party, some simply as "alarmist" to describe.

"Lianhe Zaobao," the editorial argued that the Prime Minister's remarks are not alarmist. In this paper, its international outlook, citing a number of countries, mutations, many of the old ruling unexpected defeat of the facts prove that the crisis is real. However, the editorial entitled "people should have a sense of crisis." What is the sense of urgency? Simply put, is vigilant. But in my opinion, be prepared and alarmist, in addition to the distinct appraise both the status of the basic judgment is consistent, that is considered fairly safe, there is no big problem.

DAP leader in the end how much?

The last election, the PAP lost a GRC though, the vote also marked decline, but still accounted for 60 percent. In many countries, this result can be regarded as a victory. Look to win seats, the PAP has 81 seats. Punggol East by-election later lost one seat, and the remaining 80 seats, compared with the Workers' Party but a mere seven seats, or has an absolute advantage. This is also the majority public opinion, the opposition in the next general election in order to bring down the PAP, almost no probable cause.

That being the case, a battle that Prime Minister Lee said, would not really become an alarmist?

But I do not think so. Little analysis of the results of the last election, and several other opposition parties did not show so bright, some votes even declined. Only the Workers 'Party, except in Hong Kong after the victory fort constituency in Aljunied Group Representation Constituency win pretty, in all other constituencies election, the Workers' Party of the vote were also more than 41%; of which, such as cutting the radio area only with millisecond defeat. If a single constituency Workers 'Party candidate to compare this long, Falling, Action Party vote is not 60%, and its leading range of the Workers' Party will be substantially diminished.

Especially in the later Punggol East by-election as an index, the Workers 'Party is sent in the last general election defeat, the votes bottom of the rankings in all the Workers' Party candidate in 李丽莲. As a result, 李丽莲 in surprise election to vote beyond the impressive record of nearly 11 percent of the opponent wins.

Some hold that the lowest number of votes over the next general election worker Li Lilian Party candidate status, in just less than two years, the reversal to win by a large margin, it relies not on her personal charm or strength, but the Workers' Party Lien Chan streak momentum. Having said that, if re-elected, the Workers' Party candidate might send the full elected not necessarily.

Workers' Party last election four GRC total, four radio area, a total of 23 candidates. Today, the Workers' Party not only have more resources, but more and more people are optimistic that this will attract more talented people to join. In the general election, the Workers' Party's candidate, certainly more than 23. If the Workers' Party to launch more than 43 candidates, and really all won, it would really be a government organization.

Do not forget, the constituency system practiced in Singapore, the National Workers' Party does not need to win more than 50% of the total votes, just make sure to run more than half the seats, there is to win the election, the possibility to unseat the PAP. If you are worried about the Workers 'Party of newcomers without experience, and that Singapore's GRC system, then clearly contributes to the Workers' Party to resolve this issue.

I think this is the Punggol East by-election after winning mood Workers' Party supporters shouted Low Thia Khiang will be the next prime minister of reasons. Low Thia Khiang but when I first interviewed made it clear that he did not become prime minister's ambitions. He also believes that the Workers' Party is still in the stage of politics, is not ready when the alternative government. Workers 'Party Chairman Sylvia Lim also said that the Workers' Party Punggol East by-election win as much reason, or reasons, one of the by-election effect.

Election effect will last?

What is the effect of it-election? My understanding is that, because the election does not affect the overall situation, the government does not lead to change, so voters at the polls with impunity, any dissatisfaction with the status quo will be transformed into support for the opposition. Especially after the 2011 general election, voters generally agree that the Workers' Party of the First World Congress proposed the idea, and the action of the party after the election adjustment policies and the benefits brought about by the concept of governance, thanks to the opposition of effective checks and balances.

In this regard, the Prime Minister is clearly aware of. So he's Action Party Congress stressed that (future) Each seat is the election campaign, not a by-election. He also said that this is related to our ability to continue to have the "first world government" instead of "First World Congress" in a general election. He said: When anyone mentions "First World Congress," we do not know the specific meaning of this statement, but when we talk about the "first world country" when this country is in front of us.

Frankly, I think the Prime Minister of these words, it is difficult to change the First World Congress for Singaporeans yearning. Has become the universal values of democracy, checks and balances are considered perfectly justified today, I believe the majority of voters will feel that the first World Congress of the First World governments or first world countries are not contradictory; on the contrary, only to achieve the first world Congress, the other two are more secure.

I believe many Singaporeans understand the specific meaning of the First World Congress, basically Workers' Party raised more than a third of parliamentary seats, which will help to effectively supervise the opposition. The seats from the current point of view, the Workers' Party did not reach even one tenth, so voters would think the opposition is still too weak, no matter how support, there will be no danger of the government of change. So they can still vote for the opposition with impunity.

This is similar to the effect of the election. If this effect continued coming general election, regardless of what action the party to hand over transcripts, voters might not return for sure. The possibility of unexpected change of government will be greatly increased. Although the Workers' Party has said that the government is not ready to make an alternative, but so what? Even now go ask the Workers' Party, in the end you ready yet? I think the Workers' Party will not answer you. Does claiming to be ready, and will also help them to win the votes it? I see the opposite.

I would think, is that voters should ask ourselves if we are ready to make the ruling Workers' Party? If you really ready, and that the government would change the government to change it. Democratic society there will always be one day. Afraid afraid of voters still believe that the best strategy is to vote for the opposition vote, so that the PAP do more and better. If in such voting patterns, really put the government to replace, while voters are still not ready, it is probably in the open democratic joke, or was a sort of open democracy joke.

Author: Lee Ye Ming


Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?196240-PRC-New-Citizen-Li-Yeming-Is-S’pore-Ready-To-Change-Govt&goto=newpost).