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14-10-2013, 05:30 PM
An honorable member of the Coffee Shop Has Just Posted the Following:
Blogger Roy Ngerng is no stranger to statistics. His blog is constantly filled with complex statistical arguments to challenge the PAP government’s claims about the good of their policy. Casually, I asked Roy what he thought the vote swing of the next general elections and Roy’s answer was that “there is actually a 50-50 chance that we would be able to form an opposition-majority of slightly more than 50% of the seats.”
He explains “in constituencies where boundaries had not been drastically modified, the PAP lost an average of 10 percentage points of their votes from 2006 to 2011. Moving forward, this is consistent with the past election from 2001 to 2006 as well as the Punggol East by-election. If the trend continues and factoring in the change of boundaries so that the PAP could favour themselves, we might see the PAP’s vote share drop from 60% to between 50% and 55%.”
While the PAP has apologised for their mistakes after the 2011 general elections, the effects are clear. Singaporeans have experienced a political awakening and are more willing to hold their leaders to a higher level of accountability. Instead, we have seen more struggles for the average Singaporean including the influx of foreigners, MRT breakdowns as well as high COE prices.
- http://chinaporean.wordpress.com/201...ap-government/ (http://chinaporean.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-imminent-collapse-of-the-pap-government/)
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?165984-Roy-N-The-imminent-collapse-of-the-PAP-government&goto=newpost).
Blogger Roy Ngerng is no stranger to statistics. His blog is constantly filled with complex statistical arguments to challenge the PAP government’s claims about the good of their policy. Casually, I asked Roy what he thought the vote swing of the next general elections and Roy’s answer was that “there is actually a 50-50 chance that we would be able to form an opposition-majority of slightly more than 50% of the seats.”
He explains “in constituencies where boundaries had not been drastically modified, the PAP lost an average of 10 percentage points of their votes from 2006 to 2011. Moving forward, this is consistent with the past election from 2001 to 2006 as well as the Punggol East by-election. If the trend continues and factoring in the change of boundaries so that the PAP could favour themselves, we might see the PAP’s vote share drop from 60% to between 50% and 55%.”
While the PAP has apologised for their mistakes after the 2011 general elections, the effects are clear. Singaporeans have experienced a political awakening and are more willing to hold their leaders to a higher level of accountability. Instead, we have seen more struggles for the average Singaporean including the influx of foreigners, MRT breakdowns as well as high COE prices.
- http://chinaporean.wordpress.com/201...ap-government/ (http://chinaporean.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-imminent-collapse-of-the-pap-government/)
Click here to view the whole thread at www.sammyboy.com (http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?165984-Roy-N-The-imminent-collapse-of-the-PAP-government&goto=newpost).